[精品文章] Ming: 北美期權攻略

It will highly depend on  the big funds and they how they want to play the game till the end of June. You need to take a hard look of the upcoming data to figure out any possible triggering events in the next 2 weeks.

Given the % points down in the 1st and 2nd Qs, I guess they want to hold the market at this range. Then, a good start of the 3rd Q.

VIX June future will expire on 6/18, Wed., its value is very close to the spot. So, you have to look at July and Aug.
Market Now, June 17
•        Broker earnings are on the spot this week. GS won the commodity trades last Q  
•        So, who lose the money to GS
•        LEH & MS, the other counter party traders (against GS), who trade their house $$ heavily, of course, numerous poor hedge funds     
•        Find out what MS have to say about their trading profit tomorrow morning
•        VIX future traded at middle of the range, usually skewed in front of expiration.
•        Thus, it is rather a random move this week
•        How many times you heard “oil” everyday. It is a bit of annoying
        
Outlook/Opinion: next 1-3 days
•        Close, close, close your positions and take profits
•        Don’t try to save a penny and dime, especially if you are an option seller.
•        A $0.1 value option can move to $1 in a matter of minutes.
•        It is important to round-up your month-to-month P/L, so don’t lost sight
•        NDX 1960-2000, SPX 1350-1380


Position/Portfolio update, June 17
•        adjusted position to Short NDX straddle June (1975/1975)
•        Short DJX strangle June (125/121)
•        Short OEX June 590 put
•        Switched calendar spread on LEH to a credit spread (short June 24/long June 28) yesterday. Closed positions and took profit today.
•        Buy-writes on C, GE, JPM, NEM, HPQ, PFE

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 18-6-2008 08:54 編輯 ]
原帖由 banana 於 2008-5-28 18:36 發表
呢 度 冇 乜 人 對 北 美 期 權 有 興 趣  
其 實 standardized options 簡 單、易 玩 好 多!

Memorial Day 後 美 市 升 了 少 少,
咁 你 有 冇 close 到 你 D June puts?
實 行 密 食 當 三 番?

BTW, do you usuall ...
I love 北 美stocks too, options too ..... when you can sell put or call in US, suddenly, HK stocks (especially those warrants or so) become so unfair.

Still looking for some perfect stocks to run covered call.

I have some freinds that just do day trade E-mini, looks good.
原帖由 Ming 於 2008-6-18 08:40 發表
Market Now, June 17
•        Broker earnings are on the spot this week. GS won the commodity trades last Q  
•        So, who lose the money to GS
•        LEH & MS, the other counter party traders ...
"Buy-writes on C, GE, JPM, NEM, HPQ, PFE"

You do buy writes on financial stocks, not worrying it suddenly shoot up?  I am going to put some time on US stuff few months later, good to have a pro guy like you to share some thoughts.

回復 24# 的帖子

i think hk have to follow other option exchange worldwide to set up a centralized and standard option exchage in the future. how can this unfair business will go on forever.

i use buy-writes as part of my portfolio strategy, which is about 35% of my a/c value. i don't mind of the underlying is being called as this is part of the exit stratrgy. in the present, the finanical stocks offer attractive yield. most of the time, i use in-the-money calls for the buy-writes as it  gives you more down side protection.
Market Now, June 19
•        Dizzy, dizzy of such zigzag trading in the last two days  
•        Financials appears being sucked into the black-hole
•        BKX at 61, back to 1998, 2000 and late 2003 level
•        What those are in common ? Will market rally after BKX hits this level ?         
•        FOMC next week, priced 10% odds of a 0.25% rate hike, Aug. 48%, Sept. 100%
•        Next credit crash, commercial and credit cards (someone posted in hkreporter)   
•        End of Q arena next week + FOMC…hum. I will not heavily bet on either side
•        VIX traded at premium, as I said b/4, it is skewed at expiration week
•        SPX, NDX, DJX will settle at open tomorrow, institutional game, big money involved   
      

Change of Energy policy fm China rocks the oil market worldwide. Oil dropped 4% after the news released.
Even with the increased price, it is still 25% (my estimate) below the market price.
Will see how the HK and China stock market react tomorrow.
Since its announcement, FXI, Xinhua China 25 Index ETF rose only 2.15% ($139 to $142) initially from the intraday low. But, it settled at $140.68, a 0.15% rose from yesterday;'s close.
The news seems don't have too large impact to the China ADRs as a group. (maybe except for the oil related stocks)
For those who long the stocks, be careful out there. You should use the opening gap to unload positions.

Outlook/Opinion: next 1-3 days
•        Dust will settle after expiration tomorrow.
•        New triggering event will be FOMC and end of 2nd Q arena next week
•        Don’t be a credit card slave, reduce your debts, and learn to be financial intelligent
•        NDX 1960-2000, SPX 1350-1380

Position/Portfolio update, June 19
•        adjusted position to short NDX straddle June (1950/2000), covered by (2000/1935)
•        adjusted short DJX straddle June (120/121)
•        Short OEX June 590 put
•        Other positions remain the same

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 20-6-2008 06:00 編輯 ]
Outlook/Opinion, June 20: next 1-3 days
•        Lucky, NDX and DJX settle at the open. Avoid the disaster today
•        Most short put options are deep in-the-money now. A new round of selling will start on Monday as the assigned stocks being sold.
•        Asia and Europe will pick-up the pace

Tactics
•        Wait for index to test March low, then go long for a short-term trade
•        I guess it will happen on Tue, June 24
•        Long interest rate sensitive stocks and large cap.tech.

Position/Portfolio update, June 20
•        This monthly option cycle: a 2.5% realized gain against portfolio value
•        Buy-writes (most of them still in-the-money) on C, JPM, NEM, HPQ, PFE, GE
GS downgrades the finanicals this morning. Future jumps after the news, finanical stock higher. It is bit early to tell at the pre-market, but when bad news is good news, watch this sector today.
start a short NDX July 1775 position @$11.4
as I will be on vacation next week, I don't want to take large risk. A out-of-money position offers larger downside potection.
Outlook/Opinion, June 24: next 1-3 days
•        All eyes on FOMC tomorrow  
•        Financials got a lift today. BKX up 3.2% as I write.
•        RIMM and ORCL earnings tomorrow after market may add gasoline on fire
•        End of Q dressing start tomorrow after Fed announcement ?
•        I give the bulls a upper hand this week
•        Short-term NDX 1965, SPX 1355 (middle range of the BB),

Tactics
•        Started long positions on Tue morning
•        Long Index ETFs like DIA, QQQQ, SPY and financials with defined risk
•        Don’t chase this market and take profits as soon as it hits your short-term target

Position/Portfolio update, June 24
•        Short NDX July 1775 put
•        Buy-writes (most of them still in-the-money) on C, JPM, NEM, HPQ, PFE, GE

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 26-6-2008 02:25 編輯 ]