[精品文章] Ming: 北美期權攻略

The market move much faster that I expected.
After market, earnings from RIMM and ORCL are not so friendly to the bulls.
As I've said b/4, you cannot chase the upside and you should take your profit and run.

New position: bot EAD @$10.85 yesterday for a yield (11.90%)and income investment
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  • 白戶則道

Outlook/Opinion, June 26: next 1-3 days
•        GS downgraded Citi and GM to sell. Suspicious of their timing, end of 2nd Q dressing ?
•        GS has become the big brother in Wall-St, particularly in trading business. No other firm is willing to make such bold forecast. As a result, they are able to move the market direction in their favor
•        VIX is not yet above 24, a further downside is possible
•        Last 30 minutes of trading, the out-of-money index put did not respond to the decline of the underlying. A good sign of potential short-term bottoming /reversal

Tactics
•        If you didn’t unload positions after the Fed announcement yesterday, you’re stuck
•        Go long if we see the short-term stabilization by Friday, or early Monday
•        Play the short-term rebound into early of July

Position/Portfolio update, June 26
•        Short NDX July 1775 put
•        Short SPX July 1200 put
•        Long EAD, Rolled down short calls on JPM, and GE
•        Other position remains the same, 1.2% portfolio loss today (unrealized)
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  • 白戶則道

there may be a short term rebound, but vix is really not topped yet. lets wait for the market to tell us the truth.
Any new comments Mr Ming?
Last nite the support from GM is so fake
原帖 4# 由 banana 於 27-5-2008 02:58 發表
..... Short puts .... which expiration month???

小 心 六 月 飛 霜 噢!  是 月 投 機 雙 化 忌,大 不 利! .....
二 暑 月,紫 氣 南 來,財 星 得 令,應 可 制 耗,
有 凶 處 藏 吉,先 苦 後 甜 之 象。  
是 否 與 超 賣 / 技 術 性 反 彈 之 說 有 點 不 謀 而 合 呢?  

阿 Ming,你 d  VIX futures vs spot 又 睇 到 D 乜?
你 去 Hilton Head 唔 打 golf,咁 有 咩 玩?
HH 海 水 冷 不 冷? 可 唔 可 以 落 海 游 水?
睇 你 6 月 尾 個 ,你 都 似 係 玩 緊 海 底 撈 月?

在 過 去 一 個 月 浴 血 明 月 溝 或 做 了 明 月 溝 中 蟹 的 賭 友
也 許 有 機 會 翻 身 / breakeven。 在 你 們 依 聖 旨 做 淡 倉 之 餘,
不 妨 考 慮 買 少 少 期 指 或 牛 牛 去 hedge  your bets。

回復 35# 的帖子

Bros,
just come back from vacation. a very long drive. need some rest now. Try to pick up the market and the hkreporter recorded shows in coming days.

I like hilton head island so much, i wish I have a ocean front  vacation house there. Swimming, bike riding, deep sea fishing or doing nothing are my favorite things to kill time there.
Gees,,,,,,,,,,,, sound like you are all charged and ready to kill the market now ...........

Ming, you play hong kong options too?
原帖由 Ming 於 8-7-2008 09:48 發表
Bros,
just come back from vacation. a very long drive. need some rest now. Try to pick up the market and the hkreporter recorded shows in coming days.

I like hilton head island so much, i wish I hav ...
Hilton head island seems good, must be enjoyable, bro
found some pics on net. what a nice place!



wanna hear your view on the market le, useful indeed
learn to analyse from you
tks bros.

* Watch financials today as we need this sector to lead
* Money from oils and commodity have to rotate somewhere
* AA earning after the market could shift the bear mood in the short-term (already dropped 30% since May high)
* be careful, counter-trend rally in a bear market is very powerful as powered by short-seller and momentum players
* increase of  inflation and unemployment decreases the disposal income, therefore reduce the capital from the long-term investors. without long-term investor = no bull market
* VIX July & Aug trading close to par vs. cash market. The market could trade in range, but with intraday high volatility.
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  • xd仔

* Financials up 4.7% as I write, will the party keep going ?
* Short-term players will join the party once the fire started.
* Short covering rally usually last for 1 to 3 days.
* For those longs, you may try to light up your holdings. This market can not be trusted.

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 9-7-2008 02:56 編輯 ]