[精品文章] Ming: 北美期權攻略

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No. Too much work and time for me. Besides, I think the option market in HK is not fair enough to the general public.
Hi Ming Gor

I just started to buy HSI stock options but one thing I really don't know is how to set the price for buy and sell.  The Mini stock options market spread is so wide and there's no free link calculator like warrants, bull/bear that can help us to know what is the more or less correct price matching the index.

Will you be able to illustrate what are the demerits of buying stock options as well?   I would appreciate very much if you can share with us and that will surely make me know if I should continue to buy or not.  I used only about $4,500 to try on Mini HSI call stock options bought last Fri for rebound target 23,000 @$142  for 2 lots.
Ming Gor

As you know the market is extremely volatile these days, I think the trading time around 4:10 - 4:30pm is a much better time to prepare for buy/sell becoz Europe market is opened and big investors have done part of their preparation during AO 4:00 - 4:08.   But as you know 4:10 - 4:30pm only allows HSFI and Stock Options to trade and no stock trading is allowed, therefore I thought might try trading stock options.  

This is the reason why I tried trading stock options as I thought HSFI requested deposit which is quite expensive.   Also may I ask if you know does  HSI Turnover (say like 8/7 Closes 21,220.811 and Volume 63.742b) compose of all stock+warrants+bull/bear, HSFI and Stock Options.   A friend told me it only compose of all stock+warrants+bull/bear and excludes the others.

Which one is correct?

Many thanks.

Your comments is highly valued.
原帖由 luvrab1 於 9-7-2008 08:16 發表
Hi Ming Gor

I just started to buy HSI stock options but one thing I really don't know is how to set the price for buy and sell.  The Mini stock options market spread is so wide and there's no free li ...
I didn't trade the HK stocks or HK stock options. So, I only have limited information to access your questions. Can you give me a link about the HK stock options, then I take a look what kind of data they provide to investor for making the trade decesion.

For instant, I use Fidelity Treader's Pro, which provides real time bid/ask, bid/ask size, IV, delta, gama, open interests....to me. It helps me to make my trade decesion.

In a later post I will share you some of my opinions of how to choose the right option strategies in various situation and how to set up the price for buy and sell. (this is highly depended on what kind of data you can get from your data provider)
Hi MIng C-Hing,

Here's the screencap of Mini HSI Stock Options real-time quote from AA stock.

I also find another link from HKEX :  http://www.hkex.com.hk/ddp/Contract_Details.asp?PId=4

Many thanks for your help.
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原帖由 luvrab1 於 9-7-2008 18:23 發表
Hi MIng C-Hing,

Here's the screencap of Mini HSI Stock Options real-time quote from AA stock.

I also find another link from HKEX :  http://www.hkex.com.hk/ddp/Contract_Details.asp?PId=4

Many thank ...
Bros,

I am not sure how the volume of the HSI are calculated. If only for the HSI, it should not include any options or warrants unless they are exercised.

The AAstock warrant watch pro gives you more comprehensive info. You should use these info. to help you to trade.

Some basic rules of setting a price to buy/sell option:

* Price in theory never equals to real price. No need to determine if the price is over or under value.
* Large price spread between bid/ask is a favor to the dealer. Set limit price to buy/sell in between the b/a, and watch the b/a size to determine the short-term supply/demand of such option.
* Don't trade option with low liquidity. You will suffer huge slippage.
* Don't penny pitch when closing a position. Otherwise, you will be paying a much higher price later.
* In general, the comission of buy/sell option is calculated per contract. Find a low comission broker for you.
* Rule of thumb, if an option offers you 70-80% of profit, close it. Otherwise, the market will take them back quickly.

Hope that help.

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 9-7-2008 20:49 編輯 ]
Outlook/Opinion, July 9: next 1-3 days
•        CSCO (-5.68%), INTC (-5.31%), C (-5.46%), MER (-9.25%) Do you see the magnitude of the decline today
•        July and Aug VIX trading at par and slightly discount vs. cash market, not much of indication. But VIX is in the upper range of BB, it may retest the 26.5 level
•        TLT at 93.5 Technically, its RSI, Momentum and William %R are in overbought territory
•        I expect SPX & NDX will not drop below 1220 & 1800 in the next 2 trading days. Otherwise, next week will be very difficult for the market as the option expiration week come due. Technically, it is related to the large amount of deep-in-the money short put positions

Trading Plan:
•        Hedge. No matter what, don’t let your positions to become a long-term investment.
•        Reduce your positions and position size. That will save you in the long-run.
•        No new position should be added, unless it is used as a hedging.

Position/Portfolio update, July 9
•        Adjusted number of positions b/4 the vacation and the last two days
•        Short NDX strangle July (1925/1775), Short SPX July 1200 put
•        Short C straddle Sept 17.5, Short JPM strangle July (37.5/35)
•        Short HPQ straddle July 42.5
•        Buy-writes on NEM July 45, GE Sept 27.5, PFE Sept 17.5
•        Long EAD
* VIX went up today, and the market also up today. A bit of interesting
* My explaination is the option sellers (i.e the pit & delaers) not want to fully hedge their short put position, (read: positive to the market), plus it is skewed by heavy volume of put buying on the finanicals (FRE & FNM are also included)
* VIX Aug also trading on discount vs. the cash market (not a bad situtation to the bulls)
* Iphone start selling tomorrow will help the tech. stocks. AAPL is a heavy weight in the NDX
* GE earning tomorrow morning will also offer the short-term direction to the large cap. stocks
* Since GE do not give the earning pre-announcement this time, My best guess is they will meet the numbers.
* Overall, I would long the market rather than short it for this moment.
* Option expiration next week, it is another game to play.

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 11-7-2008 06:56 編輯 ]
任 總 : 港 股 每 跌 千 點 外 匯 基 金 蝕 六 七 十 億  

任 志 剛 罕 有 地 在 外 匯 基 金 派 成 績 表 前 夕 , 預 先 披 露 個 別 投 資 項 目 的 狀 況 。  

  (星島日報纗D)恒生指數今年以來狂瀉六千點,拖累外匯基金的港股組合今年以來出現虧損,金管局總裁任志剛昨日披露,恒指每跌一點,外匯基金就會蝕六百至七百萬,跌一千點就會蝕六十億至七十億元,他在早前已發出「盈警」,預告外匯基金在首季及次季均會見紅。

Does he know there is strategy called "hedging" ? I manage other people money too.
* VIX July trading at 1.1 discount vs. cash as I write. A bit of unusual for the future only has 2 business days to expire. In theroy, it should trade very close to spot.

p.s *VIX Aug. even trading at 3 points discount vs. cash.

[ 本帖最後由 Ming 於 12-7-2008 00:25 編輯 ]